Tensions are rising between Nigerien military authorities and the government of Côte d’Ivoire.
Following remarks by Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara, the coup leaders recalled Nigerien envoy in Abidjan on Monday (Aug. 14).
On his return from an ECOWAS conference on August 10, Ouattara stated that the heads of state had decided that a military action should “begin as soon as possible.”
“Far from being the expression of the will of the brotherly Ivorian people, whose friendship with the people of Niger is unequivocal, this unusual declaration by President Ouattara and his eagerness to carry out an aggression against Niger which is in every way illegal and senseless, reflects in reality an order addressed to him and certain of his peers in the ECOWAS by other external powers, with the aim of preserving interests that no longer match those of today’s Niger.”
Ouattara said Côte d’Ivoire would contribute a battalion of up to one thousand one hundred troops, alongside Nigeria and Benin.
Last week, ECOWAS leaders ordered the deployment of a “standby force”, but gave no details on a possible military intervention.
They also reaffirmed they’d priviledge a diplomatic route to restore president Bazoum.
Risky intervention
ECOWAS has mandated the “standby force” for peacekeeping deployments. It is already in Sierra Leone, Liberia, Guinea-Bissau, and Gambia.Experts are skeptical about the viability of a high-risk, difficult-to-implement military action.
However, according to Marc-André Boisvert, a researcher and consultant on the Sahel linked with the Center FrancoPaix in Montreal, ECOWAS “has never agreed on the type of specific missions that these forces should carry out.”
The establishment of such a force “depends on the will of the contributors”, which “requires a lot of negotiations between the countries”, he says. However, “there is a lot of mistrust between the countries” of ECOWAS according to him.
Senegal, Benin, Nigeria and Côte d’Ivoire have said they are ready to send troops, but face internal criticism and hesitation from other West African countries.
“Such an operation should mobilize 3,000 to 4,000 soldiers,” said Senegalese General Mansour Seck. The strength of the Nigerien army is estimated at around 30,000 men, including some 11,000 deployed in the theater of operations, said President Bazoum in 2022.
All experts believe that carrying out such a military operation in Niger or its capital would be tough. A land invasion would require West African forces to travel hundreds of kilometers through hostile territory, while an air raid on the presidential palace, where the ousted president is being detained, has similar concerns.
According to commentators, in the latter situation, Niamey airport could be strategically important for deploying airborne soldiers.